Victoria’s Economic Bulletin: Volume 5

Secretary’s foreword

The Department of Treasury and Finance (DTF) provides leading financial and economic advice to the Victorian Government on the allocation of resources to make Victoria a better place to live, now and into the future.

Victoria’s Economic Bulletin is a snapshot of staff research being undertaken at DTF that improves our understanding of the Victorian economy. Our research program delivers new, evidence-based insights to support the provision of better advice to government. It is integral to refining our approaches to economic modelling and innovating to solve complex operational and policy problems. By publishing a selection of our work, we hope to contribute to the broader public policy debate on important economic issues, and highlight trends driving change in the Victorian economy.¹

This fifth volume of Victoria’s Economic Bulletin canvasses issues that are especially important at this time of change and heightened economic uncertainty. In responding to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic we have strengthened our understanding of issues like the Victorian labour market and the economic effects of our taxation system. This has enabled a more nuanced approach to advising Government on policies to support our economic recovery and assist Victorian businesses and households through the pandemic.

The events of the past year have underlined the importance of having timely and accurate information on the state of the economy, and the first article in this volume examines techniques for producing higher frequency estimates of gross state product. The second article illustrates a methodology for understanding the underlying compositional drivers of changes in the unemployment rate, while the third article analyses the effect of recent reductions in Victoria’s regional payroll tax rate. The final article considers the economic impact of the 2019-20 Victorian bushfires.

I hope these articles provide some insight into the contribution that our research makes to better public policy.

David Martine
Secretary

Footnote

^{[1] They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Department.}