Victoria’s Economic Bulletin: Volume 4

Secretary’s foreword

The Department of Treasury and Finance (DTF) provides robust and impartial advice to the Victorian Government about the State’s economic, commercial, financial, budget and resource management. Our analysis supports decisions on the most effective ways government policy development and funding can be used to make Victoria a better place to live, now and into the future.

Victoria’s economy is broadly equivalent to the size of a small Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nation. Indeed, measured in terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018, it would be ranked 27th among the 36 OECD member nations, about the size of Hungary and larger than the economies of Iceland, Finland, Luxembourg and New Zealand.¹ There are, however, relatively few economic research publications that focus on economic trends in Victoria.² This research volume, Victoria’s Economic Bulletin, is designed to provide one such contribution.

DTF has invested significantly in the Department’s analytical and research capability. This volume provides a snapshot of some of the staff research being undertaken. By publishing it, we hope to contribute to the broader public policy debate on important economic issues in Victoria and Australia, and hope to highlight important trends driving change in the Victorian economy. The articles in this volume are produced by authors to increase awareness about important economic and social trends.

The first article examines the duration and amplitude of Australia’s housing cycles and develops a method to predict the end of periods of expansions and contractions. The second estimates Victoria’s trend unemployment rate and analyses its historical pattern. The third article explores the relationship between land use regulation and property price growth. The final article investigates involuntary unemployment and post-displacement outcomes in Australia.

I hope the articles provide some insight into the research being undertaken and, perhaps more importantly, start a wider conversation on research into the Victorian economy.

David Martine
Secretary

Footnotes

^{[1] This is measured in real United States (US) dollars and in constant purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms.
[2] They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Department.}