6. References

References for this Victoria’s Economic Bulletin research article.

Andreou, E., Ghysels, E., and Kourtellos, A. Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how? Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2013, 31(2):240–251.

Barlas, A. B., Mert, S. G., Isa, B. O., Ortiz, A., Rodrigo, T., Soybilgen, B., and Yazgan, E. Big data information and nowcasting: Consumption and investment from bank transactions in Turkey. ArXiv, 2021

Bishop, J., Gill, T., Lancaster, D. GDP revisions: Measurement and implications. Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, 2013, pp 11–22.

Bok, B., Caratelli, D., Giannone, D., Sbordone, A. M., Tambalotti, A. Macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting with big data. Annual Review of Economics, 2018, 10:615–643.

Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., and Wilcox, D. W. Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? The American Economic Review, 1994, 84(5):1397–1408.

Choi, H. and Varian, H. Predicting the present with google trends. Economic Record, 2012, 88:2–9.

Christoffersen, P. F. Evaluating interval forecasts. International economic review, 1998, pp 84 – 862.

Do, A., Powell, R., Singh, A., and Yong, J. When did the global financial crisis start and end? In The proceedings of the 3rd Business Doctoral and Emerging Scholars Conference, 2018, p 21.

Duarte, C., Rodrigues, P. M., and Rua, A. A mixed frequency approach to the forecasting of private consumption with ATM/POS data. International Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 33(1):61–75.

Elliott, G. and Timmermann, A. Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions. Journal of Econometrics, 2004, 122(1):47–79.

Foroni, C. and Marcellino, M. G. A survey of econometric methods for mixed frequency data. SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013.

Fuhrer, J. C. et al. What role does consumer sentiment play in the US macroeconomy? New England Economic Review, 1993, pp 32–44.

Ghysels, E. Macroeconomics and the reality of mixed frequency data. Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 193(2):294–314.

Ghysels, E., Santa-Clara, P., and Valkanov, R. The MIDAS touch: Mixed data sampling regression models, 2004.

Ghysels, E., Sinko, A., and Valkanov, R. MIDAS regressions: Further results and new directions. Econometric reviews, 2007, 26(1):53–90.

Gil, M., P´erez, J. J., Sanchez Fuentes, A. J., and Urtasun, A. Nowcasting private consumption: traditional indicators, uncertainty measures, credit cards and some internet data. Banco de Espan˜a Working Paper, 2018.

Grasso, A. and Natoli, F. Consumption volatility risk and the inversion of the yield curve. Bank of Italy Temi di Discussione (Working Paper) No, 1169, 2018.

Harvey, C. R. Forecasts of economic growth from the bond and stock markets. Financial Analysts Journal, 1989, 45(5):38–45.

Hendry, D. F., Pagan, A. R., and Sargan, J. D. Dynamic specification. Handbook of Econometrics, 1984, 2:1023–1100.

Kim, J. H., Wong, K., Athanasopoulos, G., and Liu, S. Beyond point forecasting: Evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals. International Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 27(3):887–901.

Kupiec, P. H. et al. Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models, volume 95, 1995, Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board.

Lahiri, K., Monokroussos, G., and Zhao, Y. Forecasting consumption: The role of consumer confidence in real time with many predictors. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2016, 31(7):1254–1275.

Ludvigson, S. C. Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004, 18(2):29–50.

Marcellino, M. and Schumacher, C. Factor MIDAS for nowcasting and forecasting with ragged‑edge data: A model comparison for German GDP. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2010, 72(4):518–550.

Morita, H. et al. Forecasting GDP growth using stock returns in Japan: a factor augmented MIDAS approach. Hitotsubashi University, 2022.

Souleles, N. S. Expectations, heterogeneous forecast errors, and consumption: Micro evidence from the Michigan consumer sentiment surveys. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2004, pp 39–72.

Soybilgen, B. and Yazgan, E. Evaluating nowcasts of bridge equations with advanced combination schemes for the Turkish unemployment rate. Economic Modelling, 2018, 72:99–108.

Stock, J. H. and W Watson, M. Forecasting output and inflation: The role of asset prices. Journal of Economic Literature, 2003, 41(3):788–829.

Verbaan, R., Bolt, W., and van der Cruijsen, C. Using debit card payments data for nowcasting Dutch household consumption. De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, 2017.

Vosen, S. and Schmidt, T. Forecasting private consumption: survey-based indicators vs. google trends. Journal of Forecasting, 2011, 30(6):565–578.

Updated