7. Appendix

Appendix for this Victoria’s Economic Bulletin research article.

Table 5: Summary statistics of stationary data

TransformationMeanSt. dev.t-statp-value
Dependent variable
ConsumptionLogged and differenced0.010.02N/AN/A
Spending activity
Retail salesLogged and differenced0.000.02-2.070.49
Credit card paymentsLogged and differenced0.010.06-1.210.86
Outstanding creditLogged and differenced0.000.01-1.850.61
Household finances
Wage growthLogged and differenced0.010.00-2.670.22
Savings ratioDifferenced-0.011.99-2.220.41
Net worthLogged and differenced0.010.021.300.99
Debt to incomeLogged and differenced0.010.01-2.060.50
Interest payments to incomeLogged and differenced0.000.04-1.410.80
Consumer sentimentLogged and differenced0.000.05N/AN/A
Employment
UnemploymentLogged and differenced0.000.03-3.53**0.03**
UnderemploymentLogged and differenced0.000.04-2.380.34
Hours WorkedLogged and differenced0.000.01-2.980.12
Residential Property
Private dwelling investmentLogged and differenced0.010.05-3.14*0.08*
Private dwelling approvalsLogged and differenced0.000.07N/AN/A
House pricesLogged and differenced0.000.010.540.99
Inflation and interest rates
Consumer Price Index (CPI)Differenced0.001.02-2.840.16
Cash rate targetLogged and differenced-0.010.11-3.12*0.09*
Mortgage rateLogged and differenced0.000.02-2.230.41
Credit card rateLogged and differenced0.000.01-3.19*0.08*
Savings rateLogged and differenced-0.010.10N/AN/A
Market Indicators
Ten year yield spreadDifferenced0.000.66N/AN/A
Brent crude oilLogged and differenced0.000.03N/AN/A
All OrdinariesLogged and differenced0.000.01-3.44**0.04**
Trade
Balance of tradeDifferenced24.581424.80-1.280.84
Trade weighted indexLogged and differenced0.000.01N/AN/A

The mean and standard deviation of the transformed data series are reported in the table above as well as the t‑stat and p‑value of the Engle‑Granger cointegration tests performed with the dependent variable. N/A values are reported when the independent variable does not have a unit root and hence, cointegration tests are not appropriate.

* indicates the 10 per cent significance level
** indicates the 5 per cent significance level
*** indicates the 1 per cent significance level.

Updated